Updated: Can the AZ legislature switch to a progressive majority in 2024?

First, a few caveats. The person writing this is not affiliated with either party (independent!), so this is fully an outsider’s perspective. I have no insider knowledge of either party’s strategic plan. I have, however, met many of the candidates or heard them speak – either in their official position as an elected official or at events around the state. And I have reviewed all the data from the redistricting that occurred in 2022 and the results of the 2022 midterms – so I can provide some foundation of which AZ legislature races to watch in 2024.

Flashback to 2022

In 2020, the census was completed, which meant that, in 2022, redistricting took effect in Arizona. If everything had aligned perfectly with the predictions from redistricting, there would be 17 Republicans (R) and 13 Democrats (D) in the AZ Senate and 32 R and 28 D in the AZ House. While no one was 100% sure what to expect, the majority (25/30) of districts were thought to have a greater than 10% spread towards either the Republican or Democratic party, which meant they were considered out of the competitive range. Thus, in 2022, most progressive organizations put their energy into the five known competitive districts – four of which had a <5% Republican advantage with the remaining having a 2% Democratic advantage (e.g., 49% vs 51%).

In the 2022 AZ Senate races from those 5 competitive districts, 2 went to Democrats (LD4 was the standout) and 3 to Republicans. The rest of the districts went as expected, creating the current breakdown of the AZ Senate = 16 R to 14 D.

In the 2022 AZ House races in those 5 districts, four ended up as a split with 1 D and 1 R in the House and the remaining one ended with 2 Ds elected to the House. Those election results should have led to a 30:30 tie, but there was a surprise in LD23, which was thought to have a 16% Democratic spread. Instead, it was only a 7.5% D spread and the Republicans picked up a House seat using the 1-candidate strategy. This resulted in the current 31 R to 29 D makeup of the AZ House. There was a second surprise, which was that LD17, which was predicted to have an 8% Republican spread was much closer than expected with only a 2.5% R spread. There was no change over of seats, but it became clear that LD17 is a very competitive district.

And in 2024…

Which brings us to 2024, where the stage is now set, and we can begin to determine if there is a path to flipping the AZ legislature.

The competitive districts include those big 5 from 2022: LD2, LD4, LD9, LD13, and LD16. And now added to that are LD17 and LD23. The other potentially competitive district might be LD27, which has a 9-10% Republican spread. So, 8 of the 30 legislative districts can be considered competitive, creating more than one path to a flip in power.

The Republicans have been the majority party in the AZ House for the last 60 years and the majority party in the AZ Senate for the past 22 years (it was a tie in 2001-2).

The goals for the Republicans are likely to hold on to the seats they already have and see if they can widen their Senate majority by taking back the senate seat in LD4 – which makes the LD4 Senate seat a very high priority race on both sides. The AZ NOW PAC has endorsed Christine Marsh in that race.

In the AZ House, the Republicans will likely want to try to widen their majority by targeting the single Democratic holds in LD2, LD4, LD13 and LD16. Even a single pickup from those races will solidify their majority in the AZ House. They also are trying the 1-candidate strategy in LD8, LD12, LD18, and LD21 – and, while no one should become complacent, those are all long shots as each of those districts had a greater than 15% D spread in 2022.

For the AZ Senate races, the top goals have to be to hold on to the LD4 and LD9 (AZ NOW PAC endorsed Eva Burch) seats and then to gain a seat in the LD2 race. The AZ NOW PAC has endorsed Judy Schwiebert in that LD2 race. If that happens, the AZ Senate would be in a tie (15:15). I, for one, could be satisfied with a tie – at least it would force the two parties to work together. However, targets for another possible Democratic pickup in the AZ Senate could be LD13 (AZ NOW PAC endorsed Sharon Winters), LD16 (AZ NOW PAC endorsed Stacey Seaman), LD17 (AZ NOW PAC endorsed John McLean), or even LD27 (AZ NOW PAC endorsed Joshua Abbott). For my money, LD13 and LD17 are the ones to watch. LD13 has almost a 50:50 breakdown and I am especially hopeful about John McLean’s chances in LD17.

For the AZ House races, the Democrats will want to hold on to the seats in LD2 and LD16. They are going with the 1-candidate strategy again in those two races; we have endorsed Stephanie Simacek in LD2 and Keith Seaman in LD16. They also have to hold onto the 2 seats in LD9 (AZ NOW PAC endorsed candidates Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman), which is one of the most competitive districts in the state.

For a tie in the AZ House, the Democrats have to hold on to their current seats (no easy feat) and take back the split House seat in Democratic-leaning LD23. There was very low turnout in that district during the 2022 midterm election, so the hope has to be for a bigger turnout during a presidential election year. The AZ NOW PAC has endorsed both Mariana Sandoval and Matias Rosales in LD23.

For a flip in power, the Democrats have to hold on to all their current seats, regain the seat in LD23 and then pick up one more. That could possibly happen if they are able to take both House seats in either LD4 (which is essentially 50:50) or LD13 (which has only a 3.5% Republican spread). However, the seat that causes the flip seems even more likely to happen in LD17, where the Democrats are trying the 1-candidate strategy with AZ NOW PAC endorsed candidate Kevin Volk this time around and which had only a 2.5% R spread in 2022. Another strong possibility is AZ NOW PAC endorsed AZ House candidate Deborah Howard in LD27, running as single-shot candidate. It would be a mistake to underestimate how strong of a candidate Deborah is, and if anyone can flip a House seat in this district, it is her.

In the most optimistic of settings with strong voter turnout, potentially driven by the AAA ballot initiative, it is theoretically possibly for the Democrats to gain a 34:26 advantage in the AZ House. But even in a more realistic frame of mind, a 30:30 tie or a 31:29 advantage is still possible.

So, the take home message is that it is definitely well within the realm of probability for at least one or both chambers in the AZ legislature to at least tie. And it is also possible for both chambers to flip to a majority more friendly towards NOW’s core issues. The Democrats are taking risks to try and make that happen, and honestly, when a one seat advantage shifts all the power in one direction, it is worth the gamble.


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